this Lupus trial is make or break for Cpn10 at Invion. The...

this Lupus trial is make or break for Cpn10 at Invion. The company indicated it will not put further resources into it if it fails the lupus trial.

Now come the "opinion" part of my post: this means Invion has probably played it safe and taken extra care to put it in its sweet spot, its proven range of efficacy etc... going back to intravenous formulations, picking IL6 reduction as a primary end point in people with mild lupus etc.

What happens if this trial is successful?

Compare to its main competitor:

"While belimumab appears safe in systemic lupus erythematosus, the magnitude of benefit is small....(however) Benlysta was the first new drug to treat lupus after 56 years. Sales rose to $31.2 million in the first quarter of 2012.[10] It is marketed by GlaxoSmithKline and sold for about US$35,000 per year per patient." (wikipedia)

Assuming a drug with minimal effect can bring in $31.2 million a quarter (and growing) imagine a drug which becomes a leader ahead of belimumab.

References: re CPN10 being dropped if it does not perform (p 21 of http://inviongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/12.09.11-Corporate-Presentation-for-Investors.pdf).