Potential Market

Here is the first page, I have provided a link below to the full paper.


Link;
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&...=vKi0Up72dpWYHTDACDikvQ&bvm=bv.93990622,d.dGc

My takeaways;
Published in 2006, it is a little old but still very relevant. If you have newer info please present it. Remember these numbers are US only and are likely to have increased as population increases. The paper discusses resection, not our field but still interesting.

In 2005 in the US;
146 000 Patients developed colorectal cancer
73 000 (50%) of these developed liver metastases => This is our potential patient base
44 000 (30%) had metastatic disease confined to the liver => I see this as a likely patient base due to PFS in the liver of 7.9 months
14 000 Patients underwent resection (surgery) => Usually applied to easily removed or not very big metastasis

If that data is correct then 44 000 patients will benefit incredibly from a PFS of 7.9 months in the liver => resulting in what I believe will be a jump in dosage sales. Probably translates to ~50 000 patients in 2016 (my guess).

The over all number of liver cancer patients globally was 782 000 in 2012;
from http://www.wcrf.org/int/cancer-facts-figures/data-specific-cancers/liver-cancer-statistics

Assuming the 2005 paper is accurate;
=> 391 000 patients with liver metastases
=> 234 600 patients with metastatic disease confined to the liver
Now an adjustments must be made for people who can afford treatment, developing nations that are only just beginning to report incidence and expanding populations.
=> I conservatively believe the potential market is 250 000+ patients per year (Liver only scenario)
=> With potential for 400 000+ patients per year for all liver cases (First line scenario)

Note: This is a simplified analysis but I firmly believe it is well within scope.


Here is another resource for understanding FOLFOX/bev and other current treatments;
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3296081/

- I am learning as I go, please correct me if I am wrong, out of date or even if you just disagree with me