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ausheds

19,587 Posts.

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21/09/17

00:12

Post #: 27355887
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Originally posted by ausheds ↑

Well put, but very succinctly outlines the totally misdirected focus ROW > RE, almost completely top down with near complete ignorance of end markets, as witnessed by the warm, fuzzy black hole at the end of every glossy PDF.

NdFeB supply chain very clearly the key economic backbone to RE, can any here define it with any detail or certainty, and not simply its current structure but that likely over the next decade?

Exactly how many metal/alloy/mag makers do you think there are, and where?

Then look to the tiny scale & myopic attitude of really the only player outside David & Goliath, in your own back yard. There just really isn't anyone else, and given IP/scale now required highly unlikely any will emerge.

Try and define a credible path to market here, not some futuristic mumbo jumbo so prevalent, then ask yourself what would it cost Lynas to ADD 3ktpa NdPr to service a fully engaged customer base? Clearly a fraction of $680M, and punters should not discount the likely streams of low CapEx incremental supply highly likely to come to market over the next few years.

Add to that the fact Beijing has clearly pushed NdPr back into an economic price range based on supply constraint, as much as a lift in domestic NdFeB demand H1 to match export growth, anecdotal evidence suggests China currently operating c70% capacity, effectively a 50% uplift at will, as required.

Frankly without a defined, sustainable path to market unlikely any wannabe hard rock will achieve much more than concentrate supply to the Dragon, far from the value add producing a "product" to customer specs.

Despite all the glossy hype, the RE market that matters is tiny, and the meaningful customer base thru each stage of the NdFeB supply chain incredibly skinny, both in & out of China.

And the key value added markets for LaCe no different, Lynas has way more than enough capacity now for all three, and for many years.

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SB: "And the key value added markets for LaCe no different, Lynas has way more than enough capacity now for all three ROW, and for many years."

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SB: "And the key value added markets for LaCe no different,...

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SB: "And the key value added markets for LaCe no different,...

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