Potential Price, page-117

I agree with you @atagnat that FB is ramping, but leaving that aside, I think the share price factors in a fair bit of pessimism. There are no insto investors taking a stake so far and I think it's because of this line of reasoning (for e.g.):

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-...own-the-mining-cliff/7500700?section=business

NAB analysts forecasting China's future commodity needs and commodity prices (!) and FX rates (!!) for the next 5 years and saying mining is falling down a hole.

As someone who is a half-arsed value investor I'm looking for "the trend will never end" thinking, and hoping for boring news: What if the outcome is just average instead of really crap and NRW establishes a relatively stable, lower revenue $300-600m, lower margin (4-7%) business over the next few years. And gets to use its previously unused plant. And I guess dodges any bullets.

I'm not blindly following NRW - but let's face it - a year ago they were royally screwed, about to implode with no contracts and yet managed to consolidate Middlemount, get some solid work at RIO ($65m pa maybe), win $235m from FAL and get $15m of minor work "from mining majors".

Anyway, unless someone knows something concrete about the immediate future that us regular folk don't then 20c seems like undervalued to me.

and because of this line of thinking:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/31886

we might be near a tipping point. Just a guess, DYOR etc.

Cheers,
pb