At 3mtpa and RP $US500/t = @ .80 = $A625/t, gross revenue would...

At 3mtpa and RP $US500/t = @ .80 = $A625/t, gross revenue would be nearly 2 billion per annum not 1 billion as AD points out.

Taking off opex of $100/t leaves a margin of $525/t = $1.575B pa. Less royalties say 20% (NT Govt 18% plus TO's say 2-3%), then tax at 30% gives NPAT $882M pa. That is $7.80 per share approx. At PE6 = $47 sp.

AD also mentioned that MAK has a $30-40/t freight advantage for delivery to Asia compared to RP shipped from the Middle East and that they would seek to capture that difference. That's a nice buffer to have to offset any opex inflation that may occur and still give us rosy NPAT numbers.

Sure, best case scenario based on current contract prices ex-Morocco but so long as the Moroccans need more money why would they drop the RP price, as marginal production will still come on anyway even if RP prices halved. That is to say, they may as well maximise revenue while they can. And of course world population is growing at 200,000 net PER DAY......happy to hold MAK and add more when the chance arises.