AT1

4.55%

2.3¢ atomo diagnostics limited

Great, thought provoking questions mate.DG88 nailed the...

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jimborazza

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17/06/20

07:37

Post #: 45264634
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Originally posted by bulktrading: ↑

Some thoughts/questions about AT1:
Can anyone clarify why AT1 developed a new pregnancy test? Current pee-based tests are >99% accurate, cheap (couple of dollars) and readily accessible. To me, it sort of seems they tried to reinvent the wheel. Surely the market for a new pregnancy test is limited as is the need for higher accuracy. Their time/money could have been better spent developing tests for conditions that have no testing, inaccurate testing, expensive testing, etc. Are they struggling to identify new applications for their self-testing IP?
Also, whilst the Covid19 test currently has a high demand, if/when a vaccine is developed (maybe later this year), the demand for these tests will plummet and so will their revenue.
As for their HIV test, I get that it has a place and will benefit a lot of people. But the Mylan badged test sells for as little as 5USD in various places around the world. Assuming AT1 gets $1 of that as a royalty, it needs to sell tens of millions to justify their current market cap of $160m. In the last 5yrs they have sold ~1m HIV tests and their cumulative lifetime revenue is barely in the millions - this indicates they generate minimal revenue from each test. Additionally, in western countries, people already get HIV tested as a part of STI checks - why pay more for an on-the-spot test when you still have to wait for the results for everything else? Where is the high-margin market coming from?
In my mind, for AT1 to be a winner, it needs to develop a number of new tests for various conditions - the covid boom is short lived, the pregnancy test has a small market and I'm not convinced about the upside from the HIV test.
Keen to hear your thoughts. Just offering a different point of view.

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Great, thought provoking questions mate.

DG88 nailed the answer.

Just think ‘intel inside’. Their strength is in building a foundation to capitalise on any future needs quickly, hence my lack of concern on COVID capitalisation.

In 2 years time we will be dealing with new mutations of many viruses and Atomo will be front and centre with the hardware, proven, trusted, ready to go and by then enough manufacturing capacity to meet the need.

AT1 Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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4 Great analysis

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