potential spoiler tactics

Whilst I think you can only put a 10-15% probability on this one, there is a possibility that ANZ could bid for IFL on the condition that it does not proceed with the proposed acquisition of the AXA/North platform.

At $8.00-8.50 this would have a good chance of success, a 60,000 share register in IFL would love a scrip alternative for CGT rollover relief, and it would help ANZ build out thier Wealth Platfor even further. Ord Minnett could be bought together with E*Trade to provide an advised offering to compliment the execution only services. Advisors could easily sit within the newly branded ANZ platform.

As a second consequence, it would put the NAB bid (and the AXA SA Asia sale) back 6 months, and put AMP back in the spotlight. AMP may even then be the only possible buyer for North, giving it great value leverage against a NAB sale.

If ANZ was successful, NAB may even down tools on the AXA bid, leaving AMP only to deal with AXA SA.

As a final thought AXA SA could simply make a bid for the whole business, and then sell off the Aussie bits to AMP/NAB/ANZ or an independent IFL.

It seems to me that NAB is at most risk here (ACCC or competitive bids), whilst ANZ, IFL and AMP shareholders will be the nett winners. The poor old AXA shareholders can only see a win/loss scenario from here, my guess is a win, but who knows.