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05/05/15
10:15
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Originally posted by TheZman32
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Obviously its all estimates but anyway Sivart has a pretty nice easy to follow table he made going off of earnings at a 10x EBITDA as well as a 15x multiple (for MLP). Search his posts and you would find it.
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Based on Fosters old tolling capacity fees (note that the 8mtpa per project is cumulative of the original 4mtpa, and that the exchange rate at the time was 77.5c):
Magnolia
Bear Head
1
Capacity (mtpa)
4
8
4
8
2
Year of Production (FY)
2019
2020
2020
2020
3
Tolling Capacity Fee (/mmBTU)
$2.30
$2.40
$2.30
$2.40
4
Capital Cost (millions)
$2,300
$3,500
$2,300
$3,500
5
Project Debt (millions)
$1,640
$2,840
$1,640
$2,840
6
EBITDA (100% basis)
$404
$844
$404
$844
7
LNG equity interest
60%
60%
80%
80%
8
EV/EBITA multiple
12
12
12
12
9
EV (millions)
$4,853
$10,129
$4,853
$10,129
10
Equity (millions)
$3,213
$7,289
$3,213
$7,289
11
LNG Equity (millions)
$1,928
$4,373
$2,571
$5,831
12
LNG Equity (/share)
$4.03
$9.13
$5.37
$12.18
13
LNG Equity (/share) AUD
$5.19
$11.78
$6.93
$15.71
14
Discount rate to production
15%
15%
25%
25%
15
LNG Risked to Production Equity (/share)
$2.36
$4.96
$1.83
$4.14
16
LNG Risked to Production Equity (/share) AUD
$3.04
$6.40
$2.36
$5.34
Last edited by
sivart :
05/05/15