potential strategies

Been thinking of a few strategies the IPM directors could adopt, depending on the outcome they deem most desirable:

For best immediate offer: open up the data room to all comers. They have a great business trading on exceptional fundamentals, with the bonus of a substantial development pipeline. Confident the tactic would generate other offers (and the directors have their own 8% interest in testing this option).

For best combined company: negotiate a merger rather than a takeover with strong IPM influence on the board and mgmt. Sounds good but the trouble is COE’s offshore assets are all high risk / high cost drilling which is not IPM’s modus operandi of incremental self-funding low-cost onshore work. The worst case scenario for COE is they suffer extended expensive exploration disappointment which eats their cash and equity - the typical oiler scenario. I don’t believe I have that risk with IPM. Confess I really like IPM’s approach.

For best defense: many options but in particular a serious marketing effort, via more brokers. I suspect IPM’s small buyback was a tactic initiated because Cooper were making inquiries. Maybe Coopers then felt they had to get their bid in, despite weak share prices all round. IPM has the resources to increase the buyback.

They can easily scuttle any chance of 90% compulsory acquisition, but halting acceptances below 50% will be harder, depending on how many loose holders there are. Looking forward to the independent expert report as I suspect it will throw a fascinating spotlight on the value of the Californian development projects and Turkish exploration.

So IPM is not without options. IMO, with a medium term outlook, the least desirable one is to roll over and accept the bid as is.

All good fascinating stuff.

PS anybody noticed that Coopers put their announcements out so anyone can copy/paste their letterhead! Doesn't fill me with confidence. Thinking of calling myself Coopers Two and launching a rival bid tomorrow morning - LOL

PE