Even if there is NO merger, I think WDS would love to have Dorado and Bedout as a standalone, giving it a long-term growth option within Australia! Listening to all the angst from both investor camps against a merger (making it a difficult deal to get through, along with ACCC requirements), spending a few billion to buy a raw diamond from STO must seem like an extremely palatable alternative to enable WDS to lock in Australian production and growth for up to 2 decades.
We know STO has tried for more than a year to sell off a portion to reduce CAPEX for a FID but still have the oil gushing at it. So the strategists at WDS must have been disaggregating all STO assets as part of the talks, and they have probably already put a price range on Dorado/Bedout, given STO's willingness to sell. You'd have to wonder, when an unnamed insider said there was 5% agreement on the merger already, whether this included Dorado as the low hanging fruit.
We don't know the price, but we know STO could sell up to half (ie. 40%) and still retain the future cash flow benefits. So CVN's 10% could effectively become a controlling stake given it retains a few options re drilling etc.
The NERO board members must know this. If they put a 3rd party Scheme of Arrangement to a vote, they can expect a hostile WDS counter-bid. At what price must the 3rd party offer before WDS is unwilling to counter? No one knows this, otherwise we would all be geniuses (or have a WDS spy)! We can all guess that WDS would put in at least one bid to try and ward off the newbie. NERO can only say they value CVN between 30/50c and $1.
What does that mean for us retail SH? I think (and please DYOR) that if/when a Scheme is announced, no matter how high, don't sell into the ASX at that price or sell off market to the 3rd party. Hold firm because you would get that $ by compulsory acquisition if the S of A got voted in anyway (just later in time). The Board, motivated by short term profit, would be urging a yes and sell to 3rd party vote. Wait until the last possible moment for a counter-bid, and/or for the 3rd party to put more on the table.
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