Watching this stock can be frustrating. Over the past week, Aluminum prices are clearly getting stronger approx $1930 US a tonne on the LME, and Alumina sitting nicely at $300 a tonne
however i read this,
"Fastmarkets' alumina index, fob Australia has been mostly between $271 per tonne and $275 per tonne over the past month."
source :
https://do not advertise external sites/Article/3962228/Alumina/ALUMINA-SNAPSHOT-Fob-Australia-prices-stay-in-mid-270s-on-Al-price-rally.htmlThen, you have to consider other factors like
- increased shipping costs due to Covid making in more expensive for China to import the raw material Bauxite
- increased supply from Aluminum Corp of China’s (Chalco) Huasheng alumina refinery put additional downward pressure on prices in an already weak market.
- energy prices way below long time average making production costs cheaper
So in actual fact, I think I am over analyzing this stock!
Maybe I should get back to basics
- it pays a reasonable dividend,
- solid company which is rated as a cyclical stock
-and its trading range is between 1.29 and 2.51 this year.
So good luck to those who bought sub 1.40 because IMHO, i can see this stock nudging its way up to 1.80-1.90 prior to the next Feb dividend due to the increasing cost of Aluminum!
