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A historic moment in the story of CO2 emissions in China the world's largest polluter.
Fossil fuel use in China has peaked.
A significant moment in the TRANSITION TO RENEWABLES

China's CO₂ emissions have recently declined, marking a significant shift driven primarily by the rapid expansion of renewable energy. Here are the key details:1. Recent Decline in EmissionsChina's CO₂ emissions fell by 1% year-on-year as of March 2025, with a sharper drop of 1.6% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024

• This is the first sustained decline not linked to economic downturns (e.g., COVID-19 or the 2008 crisis) but instead to structural changes in energy production 26.

2. Role of Clean Energy

• Renewable energy (solar, wind, nuclear) growth has outpaced rising electricity demand, allowing fossil fuel use—especially coal—to drop despite a 2.5% increase in power demand .

• The power sector saw a 5.8% reduction in emissions in Q1 2025, with renewables displacing coal .

• China now has more renewable capacity than the next 13 countries combined, quadrupling the U.S.'s capacity 2.

3. Other Contributing FactorsIndustrial shifts: Cement production emissions fell by ~25% since 2021 due to a construction slowdown, though steel and coal-to-chemicals remain challenges 2

• Transport electrification: EVs now account for 30% of new car sales, reducing oil demand 5.

4. Caveats and Future OutlookThe decline is modest (1%), and emissions could rebound if renewable deployment slows or economic stimulus prioritizes heavy industry 3

• Upcoming policy changes (e.g., renewable pricing reforms) and the 2026 Five-Year Plan will determine if this trend becomes permanent .

Global Context

While China's emissions fell, rises in the U.S. and EU (up 7% in Q1 2025) offset global progress 8.

In summary, China’s emissions have begun to decline, but sustained progress hinges on continued clean energy expansion and industrial decarbonization.

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