Hi Maxter
I am finding it difficult to keep my mind relaxed this weekend as we await the announcement. I decided to go back to July 2012 PFS release. It stated a net pre-tax cash flow of $294 million. I expect that with subsequent developments $294 mil is now rather conservative, but using that figure on 600 million shares I get:
- after tax income = $200 million which is about 30 cents per share = earnings per share
- on a P/E ration of 10 that gives a share price of $3 per share
All this now looks quite feasible.
One of the things about the various reports we see (eg, Hardman etc) is that they never give an indication of what price we should expect on a going concern basis. The price targets seem to be provided after allowing for the probability (as they see it) of failure. That is only ever a short term aim since the project will either go forward or fail. That is, the 'probability' version will never be a final outcome. What I would rather see is their estimate as a going concern with a proviso saying what they think the chances of going ahead are. After all, we probably all have our ideas of what that probability is and how it might change from time to time. My estimate is certainly VERY much higher now than it was 12 months ago
