PowerPlus Energy (PPE) Revenue:PPE captures 2% of a 105,000-unit...

1. PowerPlus Energy (PPE) Revenue:

   • PPE captures 2% of a 105,000-unit home battery market.

   • Each Whispr7 battery is priced at $12,345.

   • Market capture results in 2,100 units sold (105,000 × 2%).

   • Total revenue from Whispr7 sales: 2,100 × $12,345 = $25,924,500 ($25.925 million).

2. Craig International Ballistics (CIB) Revenue:

   • CIB generates $41 million in revenue for the full year.

   • PPK’s 39% interest in CIB’s profit is considered, with an assumed profit margin based on historical performance.

3. Historical Context:

   • Based on the interim financial report for the six months ended 31 December 2024:

     • PPE’s H1 FY25 revenue was $11.9 million.

     • CIB contributed a profit of $1.972 million to PPK (39% interest) in H1 FY25.

     • PPK’s total revenue from continuing operations was $12.24 million in H1 FY25.

     • Net tangible assets per share: 48.2 cents.

     • Basic and diluted loss per share: (3.6) cents.

     • Shares outstanding: Approximately 89.1 million.

4. • If PPE achieves the extra $25.925 million in revenue, boosting group revenue.

   • CIB’s $41 million revenue translates to a proportional profit contribution to PPK, assuming a 10% net profit margin (based on industry norms and CIB’s historical performance).

   • No significant changes in operating expenses, cost of sales, or other segment performances (e.g., BNNT Technology, White Graphene) beyond historical trends.

   • The deconsolidation of Li-S Energy (LIS) simplifies PPK’s financials, with its 39% stake in LIS

   • No interim dividend is paid, consistent with H1 FY25.

Financial Projections

Revenue Projections

• PPE Revenue: $25.925 million from Whispr7 sales, $11.9 million. Assuming H2 FY25 mirrors H1’s other revenue contributions, total PPE revenue could be $25.925 million + $0.258 million (other subsidiary revenue from H1) = $26.183 million.

• CIB Revenue: $41 million, with an assumed 10% net profit margin, yields $4.1 million in profit. PPK’s 39% share = $1.599 million for the full year (compared to $1.972 million in H1 alone, suggesting conservatism in the margin assumption).

• Group Revenue: Replacing PPE’s H1 revenue ($11.9 million) with $26.183 million, and adding other H1 revenues ($0.258 million from technology subsidiaries + $0.49 million from corporate), total group revenue is estimated at $26.183 + 0.258 + 0.49 = $26.931 million

Profit Projections

• PPE Profitability: H1 FY25 gross profit margin was 31% ($3.795 million gross profit / $12.24 million revenue). Applying this to $26.183 million revenue yields a gross profit of $8.117 million. Assuming operating expenses remain proportional to H1 (Energy Storage expenses: $4.47 million, depreciation: $0.681 million), PPE’s segment profit before tax could reach $2–3 million (assuming cost efficiencies).

• CIB Contribution: $1.599 million profit contribution (39% of $4.1 million).

• Group Profit/(Loss): H1 FY25 loss before tax from continuing operations was ($7.98 million). With PPE’s revenue boost, group profit before tax could shift to $0–2 million, assuming stable costs and contributions from other segments. After tax (25% rate), net profit could be $0–1.5 million.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): With 89.1 million shares, EPS = $0 ÷ 89.1M = 0 cents to $1.5M ÷ 89.1M = 1.7 cents.

Balance Sheet Impact

• Cash Position: H1 FY25 cash was $5.48 million, down from $28.348 million due to LIS deconsolidation ($19.337 million cash outflow). Increased PPE revenue could improve cash flows, potentially reaching $10–15 million, assuming positive operating cash flows.

• Net Tangible Assets (NTA): H1 FY25 NTA per share was 48.2 cents. With improved profitability and cash, NTA could rise to 50–55 cents per share.

Share Price Guidance

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Assuming a P/E ratio of 20 (reflecting growth in energy storage and technology sectors), with EPS of 0–1.7 cents, share price = 0 × 20 = $0.00 to 1.7 × 20 = $0.34. Given the low EPS, P/E-based valuation is less reliable here.

• NTA-Based Valuation: With NTA at 50–55 cents, and assuming a premium for growth prospects (1.5–2x NTA, common for technology-focused firms), share price = 50 × 1.5 = $0.75 to 55 × 2 = $1.10.

• Market Sentiment: The deconsolidation of LIS and PPE’s revenue growth could drive investor optimism, supporting a higher valuation. CIB’s stable contribution and LIS’s $37.725 million valuation add further upside.

Guidance Range

Based on the above, a share price guidance for PPK Group Limited is $0.70–$1.10 per share for FY25, with a midpoint of $0.90. This reflects:

• Moderate revenue growth from PPE’s Whispr7 sales.

• Stable contributions from CIB and LIS (as an associate).

• Modest profitability and balance sheet improvement.

• Market optimism for PPK’s energy storage and technology portfolio.
  
  So 3 bags from here should keep us happy in the next 6-12 months? Lots of assumptions here cause we don't have any where near enough information re CIB. Also this gives very little value to WGL and BNNT.