Much of the discussion has now turned negative. I suspect that JPM has stopped selling and we now have nervous buyers changing their minds. The size and shape of the ore bodies have always been known. Reports by analysts are available to share holders, the latest quoted below. Know one has referred to this BGF report which can be obtained by phoning their office. In another note Warrick Grigor is quoted as stating; This co needs to be taken seriously.
I think Frank liked the feeling of finding ozs, the bigger the number the better. In hindsight he would have been better to sure up the resource. However no hole is a wasted hole and what we have is a lot of information on what is possible in the future over what is a large and prospective landholding in a safe country and within a mining and infrastructure rich region. We have an appreciating gold price, a growing demand for the metal and projects and diminishing prospectively. Add all that up and you have a co with an increasing value and some share holders heading for the doors. On what evidence JPM selling down and a PFS with a name change to a scoping study. If the share price was $1.70 I might be more concerned but at 36 cents? I suggest that everything that is now being touted re the ore body has already been know and factored into the price yrs ago. I suggest that predators and JV partners are waiting for what we are all waiting for the scoping study results and will move when the results are known. Big finds are getting harder, CRK is not to be dismissed in my opinion. I doubt their will be a CRK by the end of Jan 2011 and holders will be rewarded.
We could all e Damon ( [email protected] ) and suggest he update the top 20 list on the web site. This would let us know if a fund is still selling or if we are dealing with nervous nellies.
Quote from BGF report 17/12/09
Interestingly, very few people know about Carrick, and
those that have some recollection invariably are most
dismissive, but when questioned further, they have very
little basis for their opinions. It is more a case of them
thinking if it was any good I would have known about it
already.
It may be that some observers have been sceptical as to
the veracity of the resources but it is important not to have
a closed mind. Mackay & Schnellmann reviewed the
resource at the time it was 3 mill. oz in June 2007, and
came in within a 10% variance. We have spent time in the
Kalgoorlie office studying a computerised wire-frame model
of the orebodies, observing the results from a large number
of drill holes. This company should be taken seriously.
Golder Associates is undertaking a Pre-Feasibility Study on
a 100,000 oz p.a. mine. We anticipate positive findings
from this study and a re-rating of the stock as a result.
To the best of our knowledge Carrick is not covered by any
other brokerʼs research. It is largely unknown as it has not
bothered with promotion in recent years, and hence we
now see an opportunity to buy an overlooked situation.
We have run our own numbers on a 1.5 mtpa hard rock
plant that could produce 100-120,000 oz p.a. Assuming
capital costs of $100m and cash costs of US$550/oz, CRK
could generate cash flow of 55 per share (pre-dilution for
financing). The initial mine life would be in the order of 10
years, but the extensive resource base could justify an
expansion to 3 mtpa for more than 200,000 oz p.a. Most of
the gold is accessible with open pits that may extend to
150-200m depth.
While CRK has a stated objective of becoming a producer,
it may be that its substantial resource base is too big for its
neighbours to ignore. Paddington in particular is very
hungry for more ore. A takeover bid is a really possibility, as
would be a joint venture if suitable terms could be struck
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