Some back of the envelope calculation:
- Traditional lengind business valuation: Cash NPAT $67m ($17m AU Cards + $28m NZ Cards + $22m Commercial Lending) x 8 PE (reasonable from historical perspective?) = $536m?
- BNPL valuation: (Z1P had 150% growth in Revenue in FY21, and is valued at 9.4x PS = $3.8b / $403m. APT had 90% growth for Groupt Total Income constant currency, and is valued at 35.9x PS= $35b / $980m.) HUM BNPL Gross Income was $121m with growth of ~30%, if given a 3x PS (reasonable since it's a smaller player with uncertain overseas growth and the growth number is not as high as peers?) then this part should be 3x121 = $363m?
So I'm roughly expecting something along the lines of $900m valuation. Thoughts?
Pre Investor Day - Notes from Q&A session, page-34
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