to hit the US$50 milestone, ACR or more correctly Axiron (the product) will need to global hit net sales (gross sales less rebates) of over US220m in a calendar year.
On currently run rate / exception management have acknowledged that this will unlikely happen in the 2014 year. The market is questioning if this will happen at all!! Macback doesn't think so while other analyst have pushed the payment out 1 year. As for the 120, - don't think anyone is confident enought to count this at this point!
We know US market prescription volumes are not growing, and market share is stagnant for Axiron at around 14% ... unless something changes i would not be counting those milestone payments yet..
Don't get me wrong, i'm long this one and think the market is underplaying the upside here - but counting US$120 out in 2018 -2020 may be a little overoptimistic here. I hope i am wrong, but the current market position for Axiron suggests Eli Lilly are not making much traction here...
ACR Price at posting:
$1.15 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
