I just wrote a long post addressing everything in your posts but i decided to ditch it. In the end, as you say, its just speculation, albeit fun.
At the end of day, the question is how much money we need now and how much any other company/fund is willing to pay. I think that in order to get the investment we need now for the first site, at a reasonable price, we have to guarantee someone like Origin a place at the table in the future. After all, the first site will be the most expensive, risky site, so that risk has to be countered by access to future benefits if that risk pays off. If any company/fund just wants a return on a 50MW power plant(plus expansions), there are cheaper ways to do it than invest in the first ever CETO site.
At the end of the day, the one thing i'm sure of is that whatever the brains at CNM do will be the best thing they can do in the circumstances and will provide the best end result for the SP.
But who knows? Maybe the heads of agreement will be with a newsagent to distribute waterproof CETO pencils. I'd probably still be happy if it was. I do like the logo.
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