pre-operation license, page-28

I agree Aquaregia, it is extremely disconcerting. I have gone through the Chairman's statement again and the signs are not good. From 1 month ago (analyst presentations) to the AGM there appears to have been a real turnaround in his language and sentiment. The one point I'd note is that he says nowhere that production will commence in H1CY12, as he has previously insisted. Based on the Chairman's statement I have the following points:

P.2 - "The [LAMP] is on the verge of being completed and will be ready to receive the first feed of concentrate from Mt Weld in the first quarter of 2012."
NOTE that there is no reference to the plant actually processing ore, merely that it will be ready to receive concentrate. This is a change from previous disclosure language.

P.4 - "This time next year I will not be reporting to you the sales we are about to achieve, but rather celebrating with you the reality of our production and sales..."
NOTE that there is no reference throughout the whole address to start-up occurring in Q1CY12 (as he told the analysts earlier this month), only that there will be "a reality of production and sales" by the time we get to November 2012.

P.5 - "As many of you know, we are in the final stages of the regulatory approval process in Malaysia. We must repsect that process and as such I can't comment specifically on any outcome regarding this granting of our pre-operating licence. However, I can confirm that we have submitted all the requested documentation and the [AELB] is now reviewing those documents ahead of making a decision."
NOTE that this could be his get-out clause: he has not elaborated beyond the fact thst the docs are submitted, so cannot be held accountable if the AELB delays by another 6 months.

Now there are 2 alternative scenarios here:
1. He is toning down the language as he doesn't want to annoy the AELB again, but a licencing decision is imminent; or
2. He now knows that the AELB will take another 6 months to review the application before making its decision, but is changing his language slightly so he cannot be held accountable for misrepresentation.

Sadly, based on Wednesday's media statements from the AELB, I am coming around to the conclusion that option 2. is the more likely. Accordingly I am stopping my accumulation on dips and am downgrading my Sentiment to HOLD. I hope I'm wrong.