Hello HC fans again!!!You might remember me posting about the...

Hello HC fans again!!!

You might remember me posting about the court decisions, PDF, Green bill, commodity corrections, Evergrande etc etc.

I also posted on the 26th November 2021 (Friday) about a Market Correction due to a Federal Reserve meeting Dec 15, Debt Dec 15, Budget Dec3, Unemployment Dec 4 + the new Omnicron strain. ($$8.45 at posting)

I then amended my prediction on the 29th November (Monday) and rather suggested a BUY ($8.47 at posting now $8.90)

I first want to sincerely apologise if my predictions did in fact influence your decisions in the wrong ways - given new data, I immediately changed course and posted on Monday (29) Lynas was a buy. The world is always evolving so you must steer the ship immediately if new data comes.

First on Lynas specific pluses:

1. China just completed the Rare Earths M&A and made the largest REO company in the world. This means they will have dramatic monopolistic power. Due to China's mantra of "common propserity" and "environmentally friendly development", the price of NdPr will have a clear floor. Ie - it CANNOT DROP below some minimum floor since environmental standards will limit production. So FABULOUS NEWS.
2. Due to the above, the world is quickly moving towards greening the world. Although Joe Manchin seems to dislike taxation, methane emission curbing, prescription drugs cheaper - notice he has never mentioned reducing the $300B injection in EVs and $X B into other green projects. This is generally a plus. So GOOD NEWS. The only issue is not sure if it'll be passed by the end of the year.
3. China, US, Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine and other world issues are currently making the world more "unstable". Well guess what defence needs? REOS!!! So FABULOUS NEWS.(Sadly I know this is weird - destruction in the world is not supposed to be good...............)

First on WHOLE MARKET (Dow Jones, NASDAQ, SP500) specific pluses:

1. The December Rally has begun!!!!!!!!!! Federal Reserve's meeting Dec 15 looks fine - people already expect the Fed to taper at x2 speed. This was one of the main reasons of the recent market correction (inc Omnicron, billionares selling due to the green bill). Budget Dec 3 has been delayed until Feb 18! US Debt Ceiling looks fine - extraordinary measures will be applied from Dec 15 until Dec 21, and debt will be an issue from Dec 21 until Jan 28. However, Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer seem to be in the talks for some delaying mechanisms. US unemployment Dec 4 was bad - 50% less job creation - HOWEVER the bad news is over. US inflation Dec 10 is another issue - however October was 6.7%. Expectations for Dec 10 is 6.9%. If it turns out to be slightly higher than 6.9%, people already know the Fed will taper quicker. If it's lower - well thats even better news! In general - market looks FINE FINALLY - the DUST HAS SETTLED!!!!!!!!
2. Omnicron seems fine! As predicted before, Omnicron seems like a minute issue. Vaccine effectiveness according to data might get reduced to 75% effectiveness for infections. However, hospitalisations are still fine. However, we must wait for more death data, Moderna + Pfizer's data on effectiveness. In general - Omnicron is a done deal - Travelling stocks are now skyrocketing after Fauci's talk with CNN / the media.

Now on WHOLE MARKET (Dow Jones, NASDAQ, SP500) specific negatives:

1. December 10 Inflation might be bad - BUT unlikely. Gas prices are dropping, Oil is dropping. However, food seems to be going up. However seaonsally adjusted might be fine. We'll have to wait and see. HOWEVER it's not a big issue since people already know the Fed will taper x2 speed.
2. Billionares selling selling selling - Musk sold $10B Tesla. Zuck, Google bros, Bezos, Microsoft CEO are all selling due to tax hikes. They essentially used the current market correction as a smoke screen and sold during the chaos........ Volatility in those stocks might continue for some time to come.

OVERALL:
According to the data, it seems like there is no "systemic" risk to the market system - most of the issues seem to be resolved.
It looks very like the December Rally in Value / Services stocks has begun!!!!!!!!!!!
In general, the market looks fine now - the question is now to choose the winners!

This prediction is more so for general stocks - the question is now for people to decide if LYC is considered a "value" stock / "services" stock.
For me personally, I'm still trying to figure out the correct portfolio allocations, growth potentials of stocks for diversification purposes. Still considering what % LYC will take up, since the world has changed dramatically since the dust has settled!!!!!!