PREDICTION ON BOEPD, page-53

How do you feel about our current valuation then? I know everyone expects there to be a "re-rate" once flow rates come through, but I've done some calculations and I don't know, I'm not 100% sure, I would be interested to hear other people's inputs (preferably people who put some thought behind it, not just "we going to be ASX top 100 company market cap of 10 billion within 2 years ez pz"

My calcs are, in this 21 well project we suposedly have 12M~ BOE conservatively. From what brookside have put out on their website, the best producing wells in the area have a break even point of $30US per barrel, so basically cost of production/wages/infrastructure etc is $30US per barrel from what I can gather, happy to be corrected if I'm wrong on that. That appears to be best case scenario.

So let's say we conservatively sell our oil for $65US per barrel (which happens to be about the current price), that's $35USD profit per barrel. $35x12 million = $420million USD. Thats $570 million AUD~. Our current market cap is $100 million AUD~, or 17.5% of our total profits when, as you say, we are currently less than 5% of our way into the project.

Our biggest upside I can see is obviously oil price, if that rises that's good for us and secondly hoping that our resources estimates are very conservative, let's say we have 20m BOE, that's $35x20m = $700m USD = $950m AUD. Then if oil prices rise that's even more... But yeah based on the "conservative" figures people normally like to work on, it almost seems like we could be leaning towards over-valued? I know that's going to be blasphemy around here, but yeah, I'd like to see some intelligent discussion around this that will hopefully prove me wrong.