OGX (ASX) Predictions, Figures &amp; Chances of Surviving

Originally posted by BondJamesBond: ↑

Blitzz said- If OGX have to pay 26koz then ill take all shares on offer as it means they will be producing about 80k oz over the next 2 years.Figures like 26k oz or $40m are being used to scare people on here.Blitzz, They will produce less than 450 oz in the Dec Quarter IMO.

How on earth does anything mean they will be producing 80k oz over next 2 years????My calculation is 6,552 oz in 2 years (at current production rate per mill) with the 2 new mills added

They are burning about $1 Million p/month

And making about $150k per month profit?

A loss of about $850k p/m

Even with the 2 new 400kg Hammer Mills & if they manage to extract enough ore to keep up with the mills, they cannot get anywhere near cash-flow positive.

Using the 8 day trial figures 3 x 400kg HM's + the 125kg p/hr mill will result in roughly 273 oz per month.(And that is if there aren't any breakdowns as far as I know)

Check out my first post in the thread: Why are they purchasing only 2 more 400kg mills???

For calculations of average production rates of each mill etcJust let me know if here is anything incorrect in my calculations & I will amend them.

From what I've gathered, it sounds like they just can't extract enough high grade ore to keep up with additional mills.
So until they rectify that problem, it doesn't seem that they will become cash-flow positive.

If they can somehow extract an over supply of ore, then they would need at least 4 x 400kg p/hr mills as an Absolute bare minimum (To me this is not realistically going to achieve cash-flow positive status).

IMO they should have at least 10 x mills to give production a descent crack, & allow for breakdowns etc but would still have the problem of not having enough extracted ore to feed the mills so they need to rectify that first.

I agree that there needs to be some drastic changes.

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Hi Bond
Using your figures and then taking off some for breakdowns etc we get around $4m AUD in revenue per year @270oz a month
Not huge, obviously, but not bad for ~$11m market cap
I say they should grab a couple more of these 400kg machines (if they can provide continuous *HIGH GRADE* ore as you say) and they'll actually be getting somewhere
Almost looking like a buy imo... almost
I reckon it's enough to keep their heads above water for now. Prove they can mine 270oz a month and then take a loan to build a CIL or ball mill, pay the minimum repayments on the loan, halt exploration and then use the rest to pay the staff. Directors may even have to not take a wage for a little while.
Slowly but surely hey? Do you know if these mills can recover gold at a decent rate for ore that isn't high grade?

Around .005 I'll be interested.