GNX (ASX) Predictions for July-Sept 4C (Solar production and receipts)

Originally posted by Gus4444: ↑

With Jemalong commencing regular production, I have been trying to estimate production and cash receipt for the 4Cs. Production should be easier than cash receipts, because of the unknown extent of delay in receiving cash.

Thought I would share these here, in case someone else is doing something similar, and is also willing to share. Perhaps whoever is closest can reveal their methods

Production:
KS1: 29.9 MWh
JSP: 19.9 MWh
Total: 49.8 MWh
Note that (unlike KS1 which is fairly constant over the year) I expect JSP to have about a third of its output in the forthcoming Oct-Dec quarter, a third in the Jan-March quarter and the remaining third in the six months from April to September.

Receipts (Section 1.1 of 4C):
I am guessing $4.4m from the recognised production.

Note that NSW had few negative pricing events (in daylight hours) in July, a moderate number in August and was negatively priced for about a quarter of solar output (by my estimates) in September. It may be that this is because of spring day-time wind; looking forward to seeing how this plays out over the summer, when we get the bulk of JSP production.

NSW prices were high (I estimate around $130/MWh bundled) in July, substantially lower (~$80 bundled) in August and lower again (~$70 bundled) in September; this remains higher than the $55-60/MWh (bundled) currently on offer for an offtake agreement. Prices over the summer will likely determine whether they seek to contract half the output, as repeatedly discussed.

Payments (Section 1.2 of 4C)
No prediction here. These were $3.2-3.5m in Q1-Q3 of FY21, rising to $4.7m in Q4. Hopefully this settles back to a lower level. [Note that the loan for Jemalong was $72m over 30 years at 3.5%, so requires $4m a year in interest payments, above these costs; this of course ignores the interest on other loans being drawn down for the pumped hydro]

Expand

Here is my first crack at the AEMO data using Scadavalue data and spot pricing. I used a fixed price for Kidston being a PPA. I'm guessing I need to allow for losses or other charges? anyone know more about this?

LGCs
I just estimated average price of $35 for PPAs. I could see historical data on that website @Gozza maybe I'm missing something? I guess it also depends on when they sell them. No LGCs for Kidston from what I understand.

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