Predictions on future revenue and earnings.

I started a new thread. There use to be a tread with a similar title but I cannot find it. For last year or two I have been posting predictions in many places which make them hard to find. I hope people will have different ideas and post them here. By sharing ideas we all improve.

All $ are AUD. Unless specified other wise, all Qs, SAR;s and ARs are most resent.

This is a confusing time I would like to list my assumptions. Not to use as an excuse if i am wrong but so others can disagree and put out their numbers.
Revenue is price X volume.
I will address price first. When REE prices were going up AL was asked several times in Q CCs why revenue had not followed prices. She explained that there was a 3 month Book to bill delay for Lynas. All companies have a book to bill delay because of this delay I will use prices from Q4 2024 thru Q3 2025. So to calculate ASP I primarily used this chart. i also used charts and graphs that added things like % NdPrO and then took time to just think and relax. My number for ASP s highlighted in yellow.





Volume was complicated because they shipped 2434T while only making 1911 T so 523 T had to come out of finished goods. I will put a more detailed

description of finish Goods at end. Total production in Q2 was 2617 T Q3 1911. JMO this was because of the drop in La and Ce Production. NdPrO rose Q2 1292T to Q3 1509 T, 217T I am going to assume production was slowed some to ship inventory increasing profits so I am going to add half of inventory to the increase

So volume. The Q reports are as of that Q so no shift there, but we only know Q1 through Q3. What should we use For Q4. This would have been easy if Lynas had not shipped 500T + of NdPrO from inventory. No one asked why in the Q3 CC so we have to guess. The first guess could be That they were production limited and used this inventory to meet Customer's orders. The second is they wanted to improve profit margines in AR so they shipped product that had its expense Recognized earlier. I have no idea which is true so I will split it. I used the following chart a lot thinking about volume. They made 1509 T of NdPrO in Q3 up 227T from Q2. Half of 523 inventory tons is 262T So I will just assume (I could be totally wrong) we will know in July. So 1509 T + 500T is 2000 T. 200T more than NEXT witch they have never done before highest was Q4 2023 1864T . For total REE I will assume that NDPR goes from 79% down to 70 % still higher than any Q before Q3. We have the following table.


The reason second half earning jumped so much is the 500T of finished Goods that had its expense in a previous period . This is the point where my numbers are most at risk. Revenue is simple at this point for Q4 2,857 T X $52.25 = A$149M This number looks high to me but reasonable so here is my guess for Revenue
High A$150M
Mid A$135 M
Low A$120 M

That wraps up Q4 Revenue. Profits for second half have more variables. Again I start by making a table or chart. in this case using SAR and AR data. The reason second half earning jumped so much is the 500T of finished Goods that had its expense in a previous period . This is the point where my numbers are most at risk. In 2025 SAR PG25 Finish goods are A$13M


To shorten things here are my numbers for 2025 profits.
High A$ 26 M
Mid A$ 23.5 M
Low A$ 21M
I may change these numbers after the Q4 report.

Would appreciate others ideas and how they achieved them.

Any thing you want explained further If question is reasonable I will try to do it. I do not care who it comes from only that it is reasonable, I have no one blocked.

I only explained a small portion of what I did. For example; I was concerned about finished goods inventory. So I looked at the notes on this and put data into tables and charts. The data can be found in 2024 SAR note 7 PG 26. 2024 AR note D2 PG 91. 2025 SAR note 7 PG 25.
This may look arbitrary to some I will state my record since Jan 2023 Only one Q, have I been low on revenue about 4% I have been high on every profit number about 3 to 8%. Yes there is lots of guess work. By looking at how you are wrong, your guesses improve.