Hi MP1 forum members, I know a few of you have a decent professional & personal network in the USA and I’m pondering the likely impact of the Trump impeachment (assuming he is removed from office) on Wall St and broader global markets.
Consensus seems to be that it will be bad for markets, with many using the “crash” word.
Whilst I’m seeking the views of others - I’m personally inclined to take a contrarian view on this. My reasoning:
1. If Trumps impeachment was crash material, markets would be well down on the proceedings beginning. They’re not down at all.
2. If Trump was replaced - The China trade deal trophy would be a key prize for his replacement & I suspect key players would already have meetings lined up and a resolution of the trade/tariffs dispute might follow quite quickly. Markets would be up strongly on that.
3. Trump has managed to offend most trade partners (not just China) which has damaged many sectors of the US economy & especially hobbled the tech sector.Apart from resolving the dispute with China His replacement could follow it up with several more “we are best friends again” type meetings with key trade partners and creat quite a strong rally on Wall St.
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