RDF 0.00% 95.8¢ redflex holdings limited

re: predictions please---for kmn kmn, the workings of the...

  1. 688 Posts.
    re: predictions please---for kmn kmn, the workings of the S&P/ASX indices are a bit of a mystery, I'm sure I found the full list of the companies in the indices on the net a while back so they are there somewhere.
    As to who goes on and who goes off I gather it is decided by a committee of S&P executives who take a multitude of factors in to account. I believe the company was within a whisker of going into the ASX200 last December.

    Am not a chartist but will stick to my guess of a max of $6 by year end. To be realistic that is a pretty massive 50% increase in 12 months, what more could we expect? I know a lot on HC reckon they make 25 or 50% in a day but on the other hand I'm sure a lot also lose 25 or 50% in a day. I agree with Paul100 who has said previously this is not really a stock for the HC punters, it's a long haul stock like some of the greats, CSL, COH, PRK. FLT, RMD. A lot of patience needed but the rewards will be there in spades.

    Yes earnings ramp up will be very solid and continue for many years, I believe they will get their $9million+ profit this year and at a guess $12 to $13million next year but speed is the unknown factor. If the take up of speed camera legislation accelerates in the US speed camera revenue will grow much faster than RLC revenue.
    Comms is for sale, tenders close mid Feb, main reason for selling Comms is so that they can be a dedicated single purpose company. Management of Comms over the years has not been good, in the right hands it would be a good earner. The guy to clean it up would be the Traffic division CEO but his time will be much better spent handling the huge growth ahead for Traffic. Comms looks like it has just won a huge (for them) contract, part of a US$1.9billion contract announced yesterday by Lockheed Martin. Hopefully this contract win will stir up good interest in the sale, book value of the division is about $8million, I would hope they will make a profit on that figure.

    For Redflex Traffic it will be a year for winning big contracts, all of a sudden this year a lot of major US cities are tendering RLC contracts. Los Angeles, Houston, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Mineapolis etc. The last 2 years it has been mainly small to medium contracts of which Redflex have won about 80%. If they can keep winning these big contracts at anywhere near that rate it will be a huge year.

    Patience is needed, I learned my lesson with CSL, bought in the float at $2.30 and sold at $9.80 thinking I was a hero. The thing as you would know went to $50.
 
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