Thank goodness for Guru and Rebel. This negative stuff from just about everyone else is depressing and confusing - and based on sentiment or erroneous assumption. If we stick to the facts, there is quite some hope and the outlook is good. Yes, I am disappointed in management for getting into this predicemnt (just cop the bloody caveat; it's only for two months anyway) but here are the facts:
1. ANZ is the lead babk on this consortium. It doesn't want any problems on this one, it would smash them badly after their recent credit issues.
2. Amazing amount of security, including operation PH soon. Recent opertional actions will provide adequate cashflow to service debt.
3. The "crisis" is not about default or non-payment. OZL is attempting to re-structure fancilitie sinto a more appropriate long term loan. (Project finance to Corporate loan.)
4. Negotgiations for the Corporate (replacement) loan were well advanced. ANZ would be equally anxious to advacne these negotiations to conclusion. This is the one the market wants to see done. It will be but when is unknown now and we need an update to settle the analysts.
OZL must handle the next step well to regain market confidence. Hopefully, they are getting the loans sorted right now and will report a positive outcome tomorrow. If they can also say cash flow (net of PH capital cost) is still positive, show how it will remain so, fully disclose ALL info that analysts want (NO MORE SURPRISES IDIOTS!), and give good report on progress at PH, cash, finances, loans, (to provide confidence that it is all "up" from here), we will rally well. I trust they know this and will do what is necessary.
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