OK I'm walking right out onto the end of the limb :)
Australian economy enters recession 2nd Q 2009
ANZ settle Opes and the others by Dec 2008
Either MBIA or Ambac (or both collapse)
Significant further deterioration in ANZ balance sheet specifically
Monoline write offs to reach 2.5B by end 2009
Real Estate lending slows significantly in the second half of 2008
Further 800M in bad debt provisions by end 2008 calendar year
90 day arrears to double
Dividend 2008 financial year kept intact, 2009 divided reduced by +40%
Credit Card write offs double and growth stops by mid 2009
2009 profit below $1B
Goode announces retirement by end of 2008
ANZ makes no Asian acquisition before 2010
ANZ bottoms at around $11.00 by somewhere around 2nd half 2009 back up above $17 before end 2010
predictions
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