The way I read it, in a 3 candidate contest, a candidate cannot...

The way I read it, in a 3 candidate contest, a candidate cannot win with less than 25% of the formal vote.

However, in the most extreme situation, a candidate with 1 vote more than 25% of the primary vote (and 25% of 2nd preferences from the candidate who received the least primary votes) will win. Conversely and simultaneously a candidate with 1 vote less than 50% of the vote and a total of 75% of votes as 1st or second preferences will lose.