Premier "Satisfaction" and "Handling Coronavirus Performance" - Newpoll, page-46

"The Gompertz curve provides a lower boundary view of reality"

Say, what now?

It is reality.

The Gompertz curves I posted are based on what has happened.


"2. The time taken to reach the convergence stage, and therefore the affected population was too high to not intervene drastically - including the concern about ability for hospital systems to cope."

How high do you think it would be?

The calculus dictates that the level of the Gompertz plateau cannot be higher than the Infection Fatality Rate multiplied by the Total Number of Infections at the point when "r" gets close to 1.

And based on sero-prevalence studies underway in Australia (and referenced by the New South Wales chief health officer, Dr Kerry Chant) was that between 250,000 and 500,000 Australians had been infected by late June.

That figure is sure to be higher today, so ....


As for hospital systems being able to cope, that's a total furphy that gets trotted out.

The maximum number of serious/critical cases in Australia was around 110.
Again, based on the indicative total number of infections, that is a very low demand for hospital capacity.

We can do the numbers: Based on the indicative sero-prevalence data, and using the bottom of the range of likely infections (so, 250,000), if just 20% of Australia's ~2,500 ICU beds were called upon for Covid, it would require something like 1.15 million Australians to be infected at any given point in time.

This "overwhelming of the hospitals" is somewhat of a relic of the scaremongering media: take for example even in the USA how wrong health officials got things: a few weeks ago US health authorities cancelled orders for a full 70,000 out 90,000 ventilators that it was thought would be needed (so more than three-quarters of them not required).



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