preopen, page-20

re: whats it giong to take for 15.... Absolutely Analyser; i hold TOX (only a small amount) and i reckon it's a great company in which the management have done a great job to get them where they are. But like plenty of others who hold, i'm a little frustrated about the lack of share price movement (northward) after all the great things they've done over the last 6 months.

With regard to the credibility of TOX's forecasting ability, it's something that needs to be addressed. I mean, for example, on June 23rd, which is 1 week from the end of the financial year, they forecast $4.8M EBITDA, and yet only 4 weeks later they reveal they were over $200k, or about 5%, off the mark. How can you mis-forecast over such a short timeframe?

As a company that had just started turning profits only perhaps 18 months ago, it's understandable that they'd want to continually "under-promise and over-deliver". But as a 'genuine' profit-making, serious enterprise that TOX is now, that practice should be stopped. Frankly, the amount of conservatism they continually adopt in their forecasts is really not much better in my eyes that a company which has a tendency to over-state forecasts. In the end, both are equally misleading and demonstrate an inability of management to accurately forecast a business's financial position, and hence reduce credibility in the eyes of investors.

I'm also starting to get very nervous about a takeover, primarily from TPI, especially since TPI missed out on the Brambles assets. A company like TPI would know that TOX is a great company, trading at a P/E that for them would be highly EPS accretive if it were to be acquired. The longer TOX hovers at these levels, the greater the chance there is of a takeover, and at the moment TOX management aren't doing a great job of getting the SP up to where it should be.