I am using the presentation to extrapolate from the Black Swan...

I am using the presentation to extrapolate from the Black Swan Eq report. This report stated 2 main risk factors;
On p 1 re infill drilling; 'this is the most significant de-risking activity and will determine how quickly RWD can draw down the potash containing brine'
On p 13 ' Red tape poses the greatest risk to development'
Re p 1, I believe that the upcoming lift of LD potash to say 75 M t will remove that risk totally and also a non stated risk of resource adequacy.
Re p 13, Most of those risks are behind us but will never fully disappear.

So BSE needs to review it PE from 0.5 to at least 1 or 2.

Extrapolating from BSE report to RWD presentation;
LD only at 75 Mt ( or 3.75 x existing resource ) sees its NAV go 3.75x $m 238.5 = $m 894.4.notionally
RWD shares ; 3.75 x .98=$ 3.68x.5 = $ 1.84 ( at 2 pe + $ 7.36)
Or
Combined lake surfaces at 5544 km2/990 Km2 = 5.6 x.98= $ 5.48x .5 = $ 2.74( at 2 pe= $ 10.96)
Or
Develop 3 LD style projects; low, 3 x .98= $ 2.96, high, 3x $ 3.68 = $ 11.04 ( at 2 pe = $ 22.08 )

So a minimum of $1.84 if counting LD only but ranging to $ 22.08 if LD it triplicated and pe goes to 2.

All doable but in the short term $ 1.80 seems well within reach and I might be tempted to sell.