Anything is possible regarding other applications but I think...

First 23 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
AndyCapp

77 Posts.

22/01/17

16:40

Post #: 22060631
Share

Originally posted by SEAH ↑

Hi andycap, thankyou for your research....was busy and threw some guesstimates together using one of their newsletters....further research....they hit 25% market share when released in Aus without pushing the device, this launch was to see if it was accepted, 2nd manufacturing line expected to be put in place 2H 17, giving total capacity of 44,000 units/yr (20,000 × 2 + 4,000 × 1)....$100m/yr based on est. $2,500/unit ($2,450 when launched in Aus)......$800m+ target market...this is still only around 12.5% market penetration....world market....1.4m breast cancer diagnoses/yr....25% market penetration is both very reasonable and probable....why would anyone seeking reconstruction through tissue expansion use anything else....I suspect the board is quite conservative re cash flow and the progessive ramp up is based around cashflow and marketing to ensure all goes to plan and to avoid any further capital raisings.....a doubling to $500m mcap based on rapid growth over the next 3Q's and confirmation of second production, is entirely reasonable by yrs end along with fund buying as it moves to asx300 size?? Market penetration of 20-25% would see it very clisely looked at by market encumbents.....but VC funds involved would be looking for a decent premium/offer to get them to exit....based on success in Aus and world target market....I suspect the company has yrs of growth ahead......and we haven't touched on use in plastic surgery breast enlargement market (is tissue expansion used here/can be used here prior to implants?), also use is tissue expansion prior to skin harvesting/transfer in burn reconstruction (another market they may well have thought of but will look at once current rollout up and running),

Kind regards, SEAH.

Expand

Anything is possible regarding other applications but I think breast cancer reconstructions is the main one, I'm not sure that the augmentation market is part of their strategy. I'm guessing but, as no tissue is removed during an augmentation there is likely to be enough tissue to accommodate an implant. Whereas with mastectomy all/some of the breast tissue and skin is removed, so expansion is usually necessary to accommodate the eventual implant/flap.

I agree with your val, 20%+ market share should be possible, in which case the SP could be a multiple of where it is currently, though I think it will take a bit longer than the 6 months it took in Aus, maybe 12-18 months, as the US population is less concentrated in a few main cities and the volume of training of staff, surgeons and supply required will be that much greater.

AXP Price at posting: $1.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply