pressures, page-18

re. PNG asset sale.

Should be in excess of usd$500m. I suspect usd$550m+.

It won't be TLM. It may be Mitsubishi, but they talk about a new entrant.

There are several majors in/interested in PNG. My guess is Total.

HZN don't want to be operator after completion of the build of the liquid stripping (Stanley, etc.) - most likely pass to TLM. They will remain operator for ongoing exploration, and will operate/project manage development of Elevala/Ketu/Tingu.

I reckon that HZN may bid for Eaglewood (EWD) when/if they sell x% of PNG assets.

re. SHort Interest
I believe that the short interest is largely driven by bond holders to supress the price to reset a lower strike price 06/2013. The short-interest/price relationship over time is not consistent with a delta hedge.

If partial PNG sale proceeds at usd$550m+ (>$0.50/share) in March, and BG ramps up to in excess of 4,000bopd (HZN share) (mid year), then the share price should be in excess of usd$0.52, so hopefully there will not be a reset to a lower strike for the bond holders.

re. ASX200 entry
ASX200 entry as of 15/3/2013 should provide a some additional institutional demand in the next few months.

Time will tell.