price action, page-6

a buck? that's a preposterous notion IMO cuppa....

today's action no more than simple trading strategies being played out by those with lower entries taking the cream off the top - expect it to happen whenever sp gets out of hand. ALT is a bit of a trader's delight, and will always be vulnerable to such plays.

just a few stats and guesses about take-up numbers:

only looking at Australia (though if ALT can break into the US fad market it stands to do a lot better).

Australian population 23 million, approx half of which female, this implies a theoretical 11.5 million users.

need to qualify that figure for age groups:
leave out 0-19 yr olds: which leaves out 12.5% of female pop. leaving 10,062,500 potential users.
leave out the 70+ yr olds: which leaves out 5.5% of female pop. leaving 9,430,000 million users.

now to guesstimate take-up nos.
1. 15% take-up is beyond ludicrous so will be ignored.
2. 1% take-up. equates to 94,300 users. This would be a fantastic number, so IMO is still in the absurd category.
3. 0.1% take-up quite realistic, one in a thousand. This equates to 9,400 users. Let's be generous, two in a thousand. This equates to approx 20,000 users.

that's my guesstimate - if all goes well, very, very well then in the first year there might be 20,000 customers.

make no mistake that would be a great result - you can do the revenue/profit calcs but I think it would need more than 20,000 customers to be considered a real success.

the key as usual is the US. ALT need to push that direction hard, it's the only way I can see to long term future. FDA application already in pipeline (I think) so it needs to be the focus of ALT's attention, not Australia, only good for data IMO.