The current valuation of nearly $200 million has to be including...

The current valuation of nearly $200 million has to be including a fair bit for Axiron already. And the Phase III Axiron trial was relatively low risk, so I don't expect the annoucement of results from that to change market sentiment much.

A partnering deal for Axiron, on the other hand, could be a big event, especially if it includes a large up front payment. That should be enough to alleviate any funding issues (and make any capital raisings unnecessary), but it could conceivably be much more - US$100 million or more isn't inconceivable.

A good EU partnership for Ellavie could also be significant. It's a smaller market than the US market, but transdermals make up a larger share of it. And Acrux will be offering a partner a registered drug, not the Phase II success it had when it originally partnered Evamist with Vivus.