G’day Sache.
really great input, thanks very much.I think that 30% equity is about right. It’s the make up that we don’t know as yet. Obviously some will be in CR, some will come from the offtake partners and some may come from them selling a piece of the project (a very common method in this type of project).
We’d all love to see those offtakes now, it really doesn’t matter. None of us are selling, so what the sp is now, is actually irrelevant to long term holders. It IS important when we get to that funding time. I think they’ve set it up perfectly. We now know they intend to announce the offtakes before the BFS due by end December. That might slide, but so far they say they’re on schedule. I expect some funding with the offtakes and some big names, like Mitsui & others from the LOi’s. That will certainly give the sp a boost, right before they announce the BFS, which as I’ve said before generates the largest jump in sp, pre production. So even on a bad day, we have to be over $1 by then. Who knows, maybe even $1.50 or more.so the higher we go, the less dilution we’ll see.
I’m happy to go conservative on the assumptions for now. I’m quietly “hoping” that sp is high enough that we can get the funding all done without calling on that $200m facility. That would be great. But ok, if we have to use it. brilliant management has that as a back up if needed. even with conservative assumptions on the cost of the 30%, we’re still looking at multiple $’s a year or so after production. Interesting to see that actual production start doesn’t do anything to SP (as with CIA); the market likes to see on/above BFS numbers for a few quarters before it fully rerates a stock.
So let’s say a year into production, we should be seeing those multiple $’s. Then it’s up to actual output (up to that 20mtpa, maybe more?) and of course IO price.I’m very comfortable sitting back and enjoying the ride.
Monday will be a nasty red day on markets. We seem to hold up ok on most of these days. But if the red continues into the week in the USA, then we will of course go down a bit with the rest of the market. However, the bigger our market cap, the closer to the general market moves will occur. Typically when man in market down 2%, bigger stocks follow that. But juniors get smacked down 5-10%+.
Were not up to the big boys yet, but we’re getting closer. We should be in the ASX 300 next year. Mkt cap is only one component of that. Turnover and free float also included and were good on those scores.
cheers,
Ned.
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