Firstly I'm sorry for everyone's losses, I was a large holder & made the decision to book a LARGE loss as there has been a fundamental change to the investment.
I have also read Tran’s posts along the way & believe everything he said was correct in regards to calculating the pending NPV within the BFS. What he didn’t know, (nor any of us) was how bad inflation has affected the whole mining industry (especially in Australia – where we were already at unsustainable levels)…this isn’t a HIO thing, I believe this is the “canary in the mine” moment for all mining – this is the achilles heel in tier 1 locations now.
For what its worth this is my take on events; ( all IMO)
1. I think the decline started with the incorrect and expensive LDA finance deal (wrongly reported) which is unworkable & now leaves HIO exposed to a harsh CR which I think will need to be 30-40% discount to get the attention of institutional funds
2. I think management fell for the old trap of a “consultant feeding frenzy” – believing everything they said (whilst getting paid extreme fees) & then they come clean at the 11th hour after receiving most of the fees – so that is the one area I feel management let us down
3. I lost faith in the BOD that IMO dropped the ball with the LDA deal & even recent announcement retractions tell me BOD is not managing the details..
If funding was possible, all the numbers would have stacked up so don’t blame Tran,….currently it’s a stranded asset that hopefully will have a second coming !... (one day)
