FWIW I think the current IO spot price is largely irrelevant...

FWIW I think the current IO spot price is largely irrelevant unless you're producing, or very close to it. Hence any PFS/DFS should use a LT price - if they reference spot, that's a big 'promoter' red flag to me. When you're years away from production - or doing a 'strategic review' of your project (and those two words are generally not positive), if the underlying commodity price spikes, yes the stock will probably move with it, but usually only because it's retail buying it up in excitement or algo trading riding the sentiment. I've seen this happen repeatedly during 2022 in iron ore, lithium and uranium stocks. Speculative companies years away from actually digging anything out of the ground do to some extent move in line with the underlying commodity, but generally always get sold straight back down. In that situation, it's the smart money selling. It's partly why there's so many lithium baggies wondering why their stock isn't at all time highs, despite the LCE price being at altitude... none of it matters, because by the time they're actually in production in X years' time, there's a heap more supply that has entered, helping to bring the price back to earth.