price esg = future stable energy supply., page-9

db76

Santos' best hope is to make a rather generous first offer. A strong high first bid.

For them, the aim is to get another 30%. So if they are smart, they should offer a price that is higher enough to convince 30% of ESG shareholders to accept. With or without ESG Director approval.

If Santos are really smart, they should pay what ESG Directors are looking for. Because, like QGC, when you have the gas, your offtake agreements with the Malaysians, the Chinese, the Indonesians, the Indians... will follow.

And if Santos are really really smart, they should pay what the ESG directors are looking for, and at the same time announce a huge offtake agreement like QGC has. That way, Santos can sell the huge acquisition of ESG to their shareholders, because their shareholders can see the money coming in at the other end.

Just like with QGC's acquisition, over $5 billion is not so great an acquisition price if you can sell the stuff for over $50 billion, even after all the development costs.

BG if you listen to what they say, still boast about securing QGC. No wonder!

Do you think, if Santos could rewind and pay what BG paid for QGC, they would do so to secure the gas? Of course they would. The Chinese have just signed up for 3.6mtpa, $50 billion+ for the stuff.

ESG has a contingent resource of almost 6,000PJ (at the LAST upgrade). And they are fast moving that resource up to a reserve. Easily enough for the sort of deal QGC got.


If Santos are too stingey a second time round, they will miss the boat again. And their crappy flow rates from the Surat are just not going to cut the mustard.

If I were a Santos holder, and with a Santos scrip bid coming, I would be dumping the suitor (Santos) and getting on board the target (ESG).

Y