OK I am thinking out aloud here about price so this might be obvious to most but it clears my head. The COVID 19 pandemic has come and NGI's price has been hammered.
Few redemptions.
No guidance of earnings.
The Top 20 Shareholders of NGI hold 85.99% of shares on issue.- Most seem not to have sold Much if anything. But there have been sales and there have been announcements of becoming/ceasing to be substantial holder. These are their dates in 2020:
UBSGroup AG
13 Jan 2020 UBSGroup AG initial substantial holder ..11,774,671 shares.
15 Jan 2020 UBSGroup AG changed..11,774,671 shares to 9,130,399.
20 Jan 2020 UBSGroup AG ceased to be a substantial holder.
28 Jan 2020 UBSGroup AG initial substantial holder ...9,323,439 shares
03 Feb 2020 UBSGroup AG changed...9,323,439 shares to 15,356,799 .
18 Feb 2020 UBSGroup AG ceased to be a substantial holder.
24 Feb 2020 UBSGroup AG initial substantial holder ...15,475,749 shares
05 Mar 2020 UBSGroup AG changed 15,475,749 shares to 11,652,636
19 Mar 2020 UBSGroup AG changed 11,652,636 shares to 14,742,387
23 Mar 2020 UBSGroup AG changed 14,742,387 shares to 16,890,859
24 Mar 2020 UBSGroup AG changed 16,890,859 shares to 10,467,029
26 Mar 2020 UBSGroup AG Ceasing to be a substantial holder
Renaissance Smaller Companies Pty Ltd
17 Feb 2020 Renaissance Smaller Companies Pty Ltd ceased to be a substantial holder with Disposal of 1,592,723 shares
Eley Griffiths Group
05 Mar 2020 Eley Griffiths Group ceased to be a substantial holder.
09 Apr 2020 Eley Griffiths Group initial substantial holder ...9,417,287 shares
29 Apr 2020 Eley Griffiths Group changed..9,417,287 shares to 12,608,165 shares
Perennial Value Management Limited
17 Apr 2020 Perennial Value Management Limited (PVM) changed 11,717,392 shares to 10,019,902 shares
28 Apr 2020 Perennial Value Management Limited (PVM) changed 10,019,902 shares to 14,150,780 shares
This maybe the piece of the puzzle missing as to the price fall. Currently Top 20 = 86% and I estimate 161m shares (with price @ $1.28 giving Mkt cap $206.7M). Approx 30million shares (source = hc graph) were traded in Apr (many times more than Feb ~8m or Mar ~10m)
IMO it seems that large trades dominate and the Registry is locked somewhat. We just might be waiting for a big buyer.
Further info
Prices dropped from $3.46 on Feb 17 ( COVID 19 falls) to $1.97 at Mar 16.
Prices rose from $1.97 at Mar 16 to $2.30 on Mar 30.
Prices then dropped $1.27 as of today. This last period sees 30m shares traded. A fall from $2.30 to $1.30 across Apr 7th to 9th . So buyers are not around.
12.8c Div Ex. Date was 19 Feb
Expand
(20min delay)