why the sell down, asks chilbrown?POSSIBLE OPTION 1: Holders...

why the sell down, asks chilbrown?

POSSIBLE OPTION 1: Holders exiting because they believe the price outlook is even lower than 50c (and possibly because they have inside info that places a 60 cent deal at risk)

Comment: Presumably by now those who wanted to exit after our 60 cents offer announcement have already sold, so any one selling now versus earlier in the week is doing so because of additional info they have gained or concerns about outlook for price action. Volumes really haven't been that high, and even today 4million shares is less than 1% of total stock and no doubt many of the trades (based on my observations of the cross trades and 1 share bot trades going through) were buying and selling between the same party to push the price down. Likelihood this is the reason? In my view possible, but low. I don't see people running for the hills just yet and most of the brokers are saying that 60 cents is likely to go ahead - admittedly though these are the same experts who until recently were telling us 80 - 90 cents was what we would get, so nothing is certain!

POSSIBLE OPTION 2: Market manipulation by players wanting to accumulate at increasingly lower prices for a 60 cent sale and quick profit.

Comment: As much as it is agonising to watch us drift lower over last 3 days, the evidence to me suggests this is what is more likely happening. The trades going through are not consistent with holders running for the hills and the bots are clearly at work pushing it lower. Adding further support to this theory is the need to get a high acceptance rate of a 60 cent offer - no doubt the financial deal makers of this world have friends in the financial markets that can help their cause on this front. If anything, the price action we are seeing supports the idea that a 60 cent deal will be recommended.

Disclosure: I had a sell order at 55 cents and just missed it getting filled. Would've been happy with a 5 cent discount to the 60 cents to be over this mess but at current prices that is too low a discount on what is already a bargain priced offer. So guess I am now locked in waiting for the 60 cent confirmation. Not going to panic and sell at this price - stupid to do so in my view. Hopefully I won't regret that statement!