It's likely to be a wild month coming up.
1. Price of Oil:
The decline is in. Big drop overnight. Sub $90 heading for that $85 bbl with potential spike lower. Interestinglym Shell announces its spending big to increase Canadian Oil Sands production (OK so thats a long bet price of oil in future).
Post Memorial Day now in US and the summer driving seasonal demand supposedly kicks in. It better as EIA reported Q1 oil demand in US to be lowest in 15 years. Present supplies of oil are ahead of demand, Saudi filling any gap, Libya coming back online faster and threats with Iran lowering ahead of next 5P+1 meeting. And then theres Europe....
Does not seem to be any short term nudges up for oil price.
2. Charts
Not a good chartist. But there is an obvious "Double Top" at about $1.49. We could quite easily be on our way to form a double bottom at about $0.84. Possibly become range bound between them? If not that 60cps is a possibility (does coincide with my calc of Fib Extension downtrend to the 38.2% level). Hope that dos not occur
3. MAD SP
Under pressure from Macro Events. Company action that increase SP doesn't really occur till 2nd half. Reserves upgrades coming (but I think we have more than enough now - although its a bit like cash - never enough). Its drilling acceleration that will drive SP growth in 2nd half. That and non restricted production rate fields.
Plenty to like about MAD is a negative Macro world.
Fasten seat belt.
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