Come now db, naughty naughty. I know you would far prefer to scaremonger about all those dozens of farmers creating a lot of noise. Do you think that will spook the ESG investors into being soft targets for when a takeover lobs?
No, I think for the next couple of weeks, I shall dedicate myself to a more close examination of ORIGIN and their strategic gas needs, db. With the opening up of the gas-fired power industry, I think the spotlight should, quite rightly, turn to who is going to provide the gas-fired power for NSW. And who wants to own that gas from source.
"Origin has always focussed on the strategic question "from where will the fuel come?" to meet future energy needs>"
Origin has heaps of gas in APLNG. But here is the funny thing, db. When you take out the 2P reserves that are going to be exported, how much 2P reserves does Origin actually have left? And assuming of course that APLNG are happy with the low return on just a 2-Train Project.
As I discussed some time ago, I think Origin was one of the parties Hillgrove spoke to about vending their ESG stake. Their interest has gone back some time. But, with the delays on carbon pricing, ORG have had to sit and wait...
The thing about ORG is, they benefit from the LNG sector in QLD, whether they are involved in a bid way or not. Domestic gas and electricity prices are going up as the Australian market is exposed to world demand for gas; until now, it has been a largely closed market on the East Coast. So why would a vertically integrated Australian energy company like ORG want all the risk and capital of doing LNG, if they get the benefit of higher gas prices anyway?
Wouldn't it be a better idea to buy up a commanding retail position in NSW, divest a large chunk of APLNG and buy up gas assets in the State with the biggest growth? All those gas-fired power stations, hungry for gas...
What do you think, db? Does that sound like a good strategic fit for Origin? Or, when Origin do come along with an offer for ESG, should we tell them, no, we are going to stick with our mates at Santos (or, as Alley put it, "better the devil you know"?).
What do you think, db? Help Santos in their great transformation? Or is Grant the Man ESG should go with?
I welcome your thoughts about Origin, db, since you have been an ORG holder for many years. :)
Yaq
ESG Price at posting:
59.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
