It will rise from wherever it is to a market cap in proportion...

It will rise from wherever it is to a market cap in proportion of the project's NPV following offtake disclosure, notwithstanding other factors outside of ARU's control.

For example, if ARU announces an offtake agreement tomorrow for 40% of its NdPr offtake for 10 years, the s/p should go to $1.4bn x (0.4 x 0.87))/1.55bn = $0.315, given that rare earth products account for 87% of project revenue and there are 1.55bn SOI.

Or perhaps it will rise by $0.315 from today's s/p if you believe today's s/p assigns zero value to the Nolans project (which I don't)!

So IMO it's really important for ARU to update and announce the project's financials reflecting the increase in NdPr and phos acid pricing since Q1 CY2021, and for offtake to be disclosed before any more equity raisings.