LYC 0.34% $5.93 lynas rare earths limited

Couple things to keep in mind. Currently the PM materials is too...

  1. 7,409 Posts.
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    Couple things to keep in mind.
    Currently the PM materials is too small and too scattered to make recycling profitable. Add a 100KW + motors and that changes the whole picture. Once recycling is set up it becomes very easy to include starter motors Fan motors and many other sources in the stream. The cars built in 2018 many be enough to support recycling of PM material in 2025. over 2M high power (over 50 KW) Hybrids were build in 2018, Blus a few BEVs whith much higher power motors.
    Next There are many motor designs being produced to day with reduced PM or no PM materials, These have features that can competet with PM designs. These will gain popularity with PM prices go too high.

    You can go back 2500 years no market has failed for too much demand. Markets fail because demand goes away because something better comes along. Now markets do fail because high prices cause something better come along. A good example is whale oil being replaced by kerosene for lighting. The market did not go away in fact it grew. Just whale oil went away. High prices will create substitutes.

    Last point the worlds population growth is slowing and actually shrinking in developed countries. Before you show car sales of any type growing exponentially you should look at some charts of population growth in countries that buy cars. In the US housing unit demand is actually expected to start declining about 2030. Why does your chart show total car sales declining slowly till 2025 then growing exponentially after that??? Reversals like that should have a clear reason to explain it. JMO it is not going to happen someone just wanted to show more EV potential and they could not do it with declining vehicle sales. What could possibly cause a declining market to suddenly double in Five years??? this Chart is garbage.
 
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