Fundamentals for small-cap non-producing commodity plays was looking very shaky in the past couple weeks as:
1) SPI at 5000 looks top-ish.
2) Fear of $ printing stopping in June.
3) China lifting bank reserve requirements.
4) EU debt worries
5) Fighting in the Middle East and Africa
6) Japan
However, I think we have turned a corner:
1) Bernanke came out last night and said the $ printing party is continuing. As long as monetary easing continues, markets can only go up.
2) Earnings seem to be surprising on the upside.
3) The EQN deal by Barrick shows the potential of copper given it's predominately a gold producer.
4) China is going to need commodities for at least another decade due to urbanisation.
5) EU debt worries, and US credit rating downgrades haven't stopped markets rallying.
6) Problems in Japan and Middle East in the long run will only feed the commodities bull market through reconstruction.
The biggest driver of this market is going to be money printing and earnings. Based on the above, these two look good.
Nobody except meloz and petwan questions AVB's upside potential. Everyone is worried about the downside macro risks. Last night Bernanke just reduced nearly all that risk. I suspect alot of money will be pouring into commodities seeking the carry trade in the coming days.
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