asfGood comment re Mark Hooper. Maybe it's easier to sell drugs...

asf

Good comment re Mark Hooper. Maybe it's easier to sell drugs in OZ than paper globally.

I'm certain Orbis bought the Marchant story as it was selling down in April 2010 then resumed buying on 19 October 2010.

Re MBA, we'll never know why they hung on from $2.52 (average) down to their recent selling average of 10 cents.

DIVERSIFICATION: Let's knock this on the head once and for all.

(1) Everyone's doing it - "The growth of Antalis’ businesses on high value-added markets (Packaging, Visual Communications) and in fastgrowing regions (South America, South Africa, Asia) should also help lift the Group’s operating performance." see http://back.antalis.com/sitesweb/media/library/65624_1199_1319725698.pdf

This is pure spin by Marchant. The board was dumb to buy this line. It recruits as MD a man with 30 years experience in paper, so he goes off diversifying out of paper. In the end this too will be a low margin business. When I was younger, Avocados and Mangoes were luxuries, now they are commodities. And please don't rebut with the "common client" argument. It failed with Fosters. Perhaps Cattermole missed this?

(2) I doubt that PaperlinX has the cash to take on new products. Diversification is expensive with long lead times.

RU Serious About This: "I reckon the PE company and Paperlinx have timed it to have alternatives to bring to the table for the Review." Sounds like collusion, or do I read you incorrectly?

Anyway there are a few more key events between now and June 2012:

+ PaperlinX's half-year figures
+ Bank covenants
+ Annual and Q1 figures for Antalis (PaperlinX's major opposition in Europe. Reading their material is helpful in understanding the problems faced by the industry). Note that Antalis provides Qtrly figures.
+ whatever more results from the activities of PIGS (there is an agenda)
+ Luck - good & bad