· The Company has released its Sep Q’ly report confirming that the Buffalo appraisal-development is tracking to spud Nov;· Buffalo-10 will take c30-35 days to drill and log;· The well is designed to appraise an interpreted updip closure to the Buffalo structure, estimated to contain a 2C recoverable resource of 31mmbbls:· Given the current oil price, the shallow water-low cost development potential of Buffalo in a success case, supports strong ecomomics;· And noting that the field shut-in production at 4000bbls/d, there is a high probability of success. Accordingly, the JV has already moved to compress development timelines by sourcing long lead items to expedite first oil production;· The two well brownfields exploration program for the Dorado JV is expected to commence early in the Mar Q;· The two wells, Pavo (CVN – 30%) and Apus (CVN – 20%) have a combined P50 mean best est recoverable equivalent to nearly 4x the size of Dorado Phase 1 oil:· ;· Drilling is therefore highly material as it can fundamentally change the economics of the (already compelling) Dorado oil development in terms of extending plateau at the top end of the contemplated 75-100kbbls/d operation;· Dorado Phase 1 oil FID is targeted for mid-CY’22;· Cash of $90m at Q end;· We maintain our Buy recommendation and $0.80/sh Price Target.
CVN Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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