I have read everybody's posts. Thanks for all your replies. I'll...

I have read everybody's posts. Thanks for all your replies. I'll look at it in the morning (London time) and reply in detail then when I am less tired.

Suffice it to say, I think the real de-risking takes place when the company is able to pay down debt and earn +ve NPAT backed by corresponding cash flow that actually increase shareholders' funds. I can't see that that will occur very easily (10% chance of occurring in the next 3 years?) when Eskom is behaving as a super mineral resource tax in all but name. (Eskom takes no risk while grabbing profits that should be yours through that disadvantageous CSA). Universal has to work its butt off to get those export sales, and the export sales will be the thing that will de-risk the company (or alternatively if there are massive economies of scale from Brakfontein coming on stream) but all Brakfontein is years off. I am sure coal prices will rise at some point, but the real beneficiary of that is Eskom (they can charge more for their electricity while paying you the same amount under the CSA).

David, I'll look into those figures in the morning and reply then.

All, my position (as marked in the disclosure) in this stock is not really one at all with only twenty odd shares.